ࡱ> 8Root EntryRoot EntryGSvFileHeaderDocInfo-$BodyTextPvGSv  !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234567:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~HwpSummaryInformation.BinDataGSvGSvBIN0001.emf9BIN0002.emf7 `a``a`0 h , T ` lx 2. Ȕ ƴt$ 02003D 12 19| | $ 9:59:04  05, 7, 6, 3020 6@0#]@GSv@HWP Document FileSection0x ,Aemfemfat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjo0b\Ց HY Junggothicat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjo0b\Ց HY Junggothicat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjo0b\Ց HY Junggothicat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjo0b\Ց HY Junggothicat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjoat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft BatangPb\Ց…pHY Sinmyeongjo0b\Ց HY Junggothicat GulimaBatangPa\Haansoft Batang0bpMyeongjo@dddddddddddddd @dddddddddddddd @bbbbbbbddddddd @_______ddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @dddddddddddddd @aaaaaaadddddddL @aaaaaaadddddddL @_______ddddddd @_______dddddddL @aaaaaaadddddddL @aaaaaaadddddddL @aaaaaaadddddddL @aaaaaaaddddddd @_______ddddddd @_______ddddddd @_______ddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd| @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @_______ddddddd @_______ddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @]]]]]]]ddddddd @dddddddddddddd @dddddddddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaaddddddd @aaaaaaadddddddL @aaaaaaadddddddL @```````dddddddL @_______dddddddL @_______dddddddL @aaaaaaaddddddd 6'@&Ee@@>]}@@8Ww@@2Qq@@ ,Kk@( (8 P p88^ f   8"8 n 88 nn`0(8P d    d(@.8<r~  d 2Normal 8` 1` 2` 3` 4` 5` 6` 7 8 Page Number @8й   `ci8 @ci @ci@ci1`ci1) @ci   `ci 1> @@@@d@@ @dl->cO EMF7@% Ld-A!??%   % &% % K@0 PD<PD<% '%  +C< % % ( KK@0 PD<PD<% '%  +vC< % % ( KRp"Arialp4d|p|m|||$  w@0@0x^wĠtwسȽw8س8w8D;w!Lw!vddv% % TX'>FAA'LP70E;6O;TX>AALP80E6OTX]>|AA]LP90Eq6OqT`>AALT100E 6O T`>AALT110E6OT`0>OAA0LT120ED6OD% ( Rp"Arial|蟜Q|Hm| 120@hEz@TH@{@E{w 0<෢ط8f |p|m||| w Edv% P<6PB[<6[Bf<6fBq<6qB|<6|B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B <6 B<6B"<6"B-<6-B8<68BC<6CBN<6NBY<6YBd<6dBo<6oBz<6zB<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B <6 B<6B <6 B+<6+B6<66BA<6ABL<6LBW<6WBb<6bBm<6mBy<6yB<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6B<6BP<6PG|<6|G<6G<6G<6G-<6-GY<6YG<6G<6G<6G <6 G6<66Gb<6bG<6G<6G<6GTdJH}aAAJHLT1990 P<6PGTdHaAAHLT1992 <6GTdH-aAAHLT1994 <6GTdSHaAASHLT1996 Y<6YGTdHaAAHLT1998 <6GTdH7aAAHLT2000  <6 GTd\HaAA\HLT2002 b<6bGTdHaAAHLT2004 <6G% ( &% P 6S6W6[6^6b6f6i6m6q6t6x6|66666666666666}6y6z6v6y66{6v6l6q6m6u66666666666u6t6p6 w6t6u6x6{66!6%|6)y6,t60u64x67u6;r6?n6Bp6Fj6J`6N[6QX6U^6Y^6\\6`X6dR6gQ6kP6oL6rH6vC6zA6}J6P6M6K6K6K6H6:6<6869666=6C6N6T6[6b6f6l6i6e6d6j6q6h6_6T6O6I6H6G6G6H6C6;6/6.6 ,6 '666666#6'6*6.626569 6=6@6D6H6L6O6S6W6Z6^6b6e6i6m6p6t6x6{6666666666666666666666666666666% ( &% OC6O<6<6C6OC% ( Rp"Arialm|c0V!200405*w! 0V2004190U0U0y@Utz@h|p|m|||c0 w|w w vdlwlwi Gdv% TTPF_eAAPFLP2TT`FoeAA`FLP0TTpFeAApFLP0TTFeAAFLP0TTFeAAFLP=TTFeAAFLP1TTFeAAFLP0TTFeAAFLP0Rp"Arial @ Ez@pv@{@{z@ E{w!Fxv@@{vBzfzz,E@{dv6H66666666666 6 k6666h6f6"_6&n6)\6-^61d64o686;6?6C6F6J6M6Q6U6X6\6_6c6g6j6n6r6u6y6|666666m6f6x6~666666666666666666666666% ( &% b6b666b% ( Rp"Arialdww!! w xwhcwbw !w `@| Q|H|}0!2004 `*w! 20041990dv% % % % +0^% &% H6H% ( TT8WAA8LP<TT8WAA8LPsTT8'WAA8LPmTT(86WAA(8LPoTT78EWAA78LPoTTF8MWAAF8LPtTTN8\WAAN8LPhTT]8kWAA]8LPeTTl8zWAAl8LPd0TT{8WAA{8LP TT8WAA8LPsTT8WAA8LPiTT8WAA8LPx TT8WAA8LP- TT8WAA8LPmTT8WAA8LPoTT8WAA8LPnTT8WAA8LPtTT8WAA8LPhTT8WAA8LP TT8 WAA8LPcTT 8WAA 8LPhTT8*WAA8LPaTT+89WAA+8LPnTT:8HWAA:8LPgTTI8WWAAI8LPeTTX8_WAAX8LP TT`8hWAA`8LPr TTi8wWAAi8LPaTTx8WAAx8LPtTT8WAA8LPeTT8WAA8LP>% % ( Rp"Arial@@{Ȩxfzz|p|m||Bڏ|f8@|@ PB`L!ڏ|f8343xw|w w!|w w `EdlwlwV dv% TTczAAcLP%% % K@0 % '%  +( % % ( KK@0 % '%  + % % ( KRp"ArialL@|p|m||| wg0:g0:T^wĀ1xtw1777Ƚw17XXwXw!Lw!dv% % TXbyAAbLP-6 6TXbyAAbLP-4 6TXbYyxAAbYLP-2 m6mTTky;AAkLP0060TTkyAAkLP26TTkyAAkLP46TTkcyAAkcLP6w6wTTk%yDAAk%LP8969TX\yAA\LP106% ( Rp"Arial|xQ|Hm|} 10@ DEz@dE@{@ZP|{w \ Xf|p|m|||} wEdv% 666666666666 6 6 6 +6+666A6AK6KV6Va6al6lw6w666666666666666$6$/6/:6:E6EO6OZ6Ze6ep6p{6{66666666666666666 6 666a6a6666:6:e6e6666TdAALT19906TdAALT19926Td,gAA,LT1994666TdAALT19966TdAALT19986Td0kAA0LT2000:6:TdAALT20026TdAALT20046% ( &% 66u6p6f6Y6G6=6*6 6!696<6^666666 666D6s66 6$6'6+6/62D66 696=6A6D6H6K6O6S6V6Z6]6a6e6h6l6p6s 6w6z6~66666666666666666 66666666666H6_6x666666666 6a616666 6$6(6+6/62666:6=6Au6Es6Hr6L6Oo6Sk6Wl6Zo6^6a6e6i6l6p6s6w6{6~6666666666666666666666666666*6!6$6<6D6T6>6M6L6Y6Y6 I666:6G6G% ( &% 6666% ( Rp"Arialdww!! w xwhcwbw !w `@|x Q|H|'0Ӏ{!2004 `*w! {20041990dv% % % % +0^% &% H6 H% ( TT8!WAA8LPsTT"87WAA"8LPmTT88FWAA88LPoTTG8UWAAG8LPoTTV8]WAAV8LPtTT^8lWAA^8LPhTTm8{WAAm8LPeTT|8WAA|8LPdTT8WAA8LP TT8WAA8LPtTT8WAA8LPwTT8WAA8LPeTT8WAA8LPlTT8WAA8LPv TT8WAA8LPeTT8WAA8LP- TT8WAA8LPmTT8 WAA8LPoTT 8WAA 8LPnTT8#WAA8LPtTT$82WAA$8LPhTT38:WAA38LP TT;8HWAA;8LPcTTI8WWAAI8LPhTTX8fWAAX8LPeTTg8uWAAg8LPnTTv8WAAv8LPgTT8WAA8LPeTT8WAA8LP TT8WAA8LPr TT8WAA8LPaTT8WAA8LPtTT8WAA8LPe% % ( Rp"Ariallz@@{{xfzzlz|p|m||Bڏ|f8@|@ PB`L!ڏ|f8343xw|w w!|w w 1dlwlw /dv% TTAALP%% %       !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxB`" C@dcesdloc 0ٳՅiX  D ! E@Gdcesn@Wff@ @@2@@@d@ @2@  @ d@$@ @"@!@@ @ IH&&8!8!J*)88TJ)`@KKKGdlocB`9 C0*, 1**, nj*** D$+$ + $+$E@B` C|8 ] D%E@"QB` C 1995D )XX \ )Ȁ( ŽED ½$ ɉt| ` `t (  Lij lX ŽE ½ DՔ\ Ž\Ԕ pX Ŕ t. ҈ ij mȐ ijX x \ X iD Ǵ<\ $ XՔ ¤\ ijt DՔXp \ !ɀ@ 첬, Žlp , D 0<\ X Ǵ Ž0 \ ųx t DՔXՌ   0ٳՅi| XՌ . DE2LLp,:LLpVdBLLp JLLpQLLpYLLpTaLLpB` C  X 0ٳՅi D t X 0ٳD $tȔ ļ Ĭ̸| Ȁ8ļ\ 46 \| X . DECLLp+KLLpVXSLLpB` DE@[B`, C`<\ 1>  \ ] DE@,cLLpB` , C  lbt DE@jCC9G lbt"*B,t9vM` H` m,fm,B`, C `8 D E @{HT+H` mfmB`, C \ԅ D E @{HlH` m,fm,B` / C ଩ƀ8(8) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C \ٳ xl, Ő, DŐ x 5 D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C @D8(3) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C (D), %Dɷ(Щ) x 1 D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C ,Ґǀ8(5) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C (), tt x 3 D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C @8(16) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C , , …, <ݴ x 12 D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C ଀8(1) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C @ȈԬ D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C <8(1) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C D< D E @{HX(jH` m,fm,B` / C @Tր8(11) D E @{Hl'H` mfmB` C Lǀij(, @lj, @lj x 8 D E @{HX(jH` m,f m,B` / C 4ŀ8(1) D E @{Hl'H` mf mB` C LCija D E @{HX(jB`, DE@.B`+ C` (2) Ž0\X 0Q%  \ )titM D$E@FB`Y C  <\ 1>X \ t ĬD X 0Q%D X

 0ٳ \ ] DE@ELLB` . C  lbt DE@|L_Y_YKXG lbt"*|'W'}9vM H` B`C Ȁ8 D E @{hH` 33B`C ̸ D E @{h2H` B`C ` D E @{hH` ((B`C ̸ D E @{h'H` DH DB` 2C 10  ̸͘ D  E {,{,H` KB`C `଩ D E @{hH` 3K3B`C D  D  E @{h2H` KB`C `̅ D E @{hH` (K(B`C 98D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DKDB`C Ĭ D E @{h,H` 'B`C ` D E @{hH` 3K3B` C   D E @{h2H` KB` C 2000=100 D E @{hH` (K(B`C 93D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DKDB`C Ĭ D E @{h,H` 33B`C    () D E @{h2H` B`C 1̹ D E @{hH` ((B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DH DB`2C  ij D E @{,B`2C ֌ D E @{,H` 33B`C  < ݴ() D E @{h2H` B`C 1̹ D E @{hH` ((B`C 93D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DH DB`2C \m@lj D E @{,B`2C  D E @{,H` 3K3B`C  X  D E @{h2H` KB` C 2000=100 D E @{hH` (K(B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DKDB`C Ĭ D E @{h,H` 33B`C     D E @{h2H` B`C @ D E @{hH` ((B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DH DB`2C  ij D E @{,B`2C ֌ D E @{,H` +B`C `D D E @{hH` 3K3B` C (D) D E @{h2H` KB` C 2000=100 D E @{hH` (K(B`C 93D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DKDB`C Ĭ D E @{h,H` 33B`C  % ɷ(Щ) D  E @{h2H` B`C Mwh D E @{hH` ((B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H` DH DB`2C \m% D E @{,B`2C ɬ D E @{,H`  3K3B` C ǜX(D) D E @{h2H`  KB` C 2000=100 D E @{hH`  (K(B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H`  DKDB`C Ĭ D E @{h,H` H B`2C `T D E @{B`2C (5) D E @{H`  3 3B`C  L P X a() D E @{h2H`   B`C 10 D E @{hH`  ( (B`C 90D 1^2003D 6 D E @{h'H`  D DB`C \m@lj D E @{h,B` C : Ĭ̸ X ̸. DE@3R B`, DE@;B`'C 3)  ٳՅiX °  \ͅ l1\ titM D%E@SQB`C` (1) ٳՅi 1)titM D$E@B`5 C  0ٳ 1@ 3ij $Xt XՌ $Xt L . DELLp*?LLpB`[ C` , ļ\X D0 xD pX0 t X-12-ARIMA X\ Ĭp  3  6 йm tٳD X 8XĬD X. DELLp/LLpB` C X, l1\ļ\ D `D X. DE@xLLpB`4 C K, l1\X Xt <\ P Dij] pXՔ \T֑D ‰X. DE4LLp+LLpB`M C 7, X ଢ଼`D X ٳ | Ĭ\ , 2000DD 0Dij\ pX  ٳՅi| X. DE&LLp/h.LLpB` DE@$6LLpB`"C@ (2) ٳՅiX °  1 titM D$E@?B`  C@7 0iX °(simulation)tǀ \X l1\ pi(combination)D ijX0 t Ȁ8ļ\  \| tǩX \X piմD t 0i| 1XՔ D й\. °@ 0i l1\| XՔ  ɔ\ X| ǔp, tǔ ļ<\  X Ĭ X1 Ǵ @ \||ij  \ȹX l ĬX t tX\ t \D l1\\ X X՘X piD ̹䴴 0i| 1t t,  \X t \ ǩD Xt 0@Ɣ ( Ŕ ɄD д `  0 L8t. 0| ° ι@ D ``X l1\X piD p) t t X ǩ1t p 0iX l1\| >D| \. DEdLLLp7 TLLpa[LLpcLLpTkLLpsLLp zLLp7LLpbDLLpLLpB` C  X 0i| 1X0 \ ° <\ 3> @ \| pi\ mX 0ٳ \X 0ٳ D H` L $%t p <\ И t 6X \|  0i| X. DE LLp,xLLpW4LLpLLpB`, DE@B`, DE@LLpB`, DE@LLpB`, DE@<LLpB`, DE@LLpB`, C<\ 3>  ٳՅiX \ͅl1\ DE@LLpB` , C  lbt DE@44,G lbt"*3(9vM H` 'h'B`C ̸ D E @{t&H` xhxB`C ` D E @{t`H`  h B`C ̸0 D E @{tH` 8#h8#B`C 10 D E @{t "H` 8#h8#B`C ̸͘ D E @{t "H` 'h'B` 0C D Ő D E @{<%H` xhxB`.C `̅ D E @{<`H`  h B` .C @1998D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h8#B`0C Ĭ D E @{<$!H` 8#h8#B`0C KOSIS D E @{<$!H` 'h'B`0C  D E @{<%H` xhxB` .C 2000=100 D E @{<`H`  h B` .C @1993D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h8#B`0C Ĭ D E @{<$!H` 8#h8#B`0C KOSIS D E @{<$!H` 'h'B`0C  D E @{<%H` xhxB`.C @ D E @{<`H`  h B` .C @1990D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h8#B` 0C @ij ֌ D E @{<$!H` 8#h8#B` 0C ij ֌ D E @{<$!H` 'h'B` 0C @<ݴ() D E @{<%H` xhxB`.C 1̹ D E @{<`H`  h B` .C @1993D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h8#B` 0C @\m@lj  D !E @{<$!H` 8#h8#B` 0C @\m@lj  D !E @{<$!H` 'h'B` 0C `%ɷ(Щ) D E @{<%H` xhxB`1C Mwh D E @{ `H`  h B` .C @1990D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h8#B` 0C @\m% ɬ D E @{<$!H` 8#h8#B` 0C @\m% ɬ D E @{<$!H` 'h 'B` 0C (D) D E @{<%H` xh xB` .C 2000=100 D E @{<`H`  h B` .C @1993D 1^ D E @{<H` 8#h 8#B`0C Ĭ D E @{<$!H` 8#h 8#B`0C KOSIS D E @{<$!B`, DE@D@B`  C1 DŐ” ଩ƀ8D \XՔ \\ 0ٳ1D Ȕ \t. 8X , , <ݴ()@  1, 2, 3( D \XՔ \\ ȽX 8D ݹ|\ \| `  . \\ X ǜX” @X 1t Ǵ xX

@ . DE@LLpB` DE@pB`, C<\ 4>  \ͅ\X ܭY ij(MCD) DE@LLpB`- C:  DE@DR,B`  C  lbt DE@X*G lbt"*)9vMH` L LB`. D E @{<4H` t tB`. C  D E @{<\H`    B`. C %ɷ D E @{<H`    B`. C  D E @{<H` t tB` . C (D) D E {<\T{<\H`    B`. C <ݴ D E @{<H`    B`. C D D E @{<B`. C Ő D E @T{<H` Lh LB`. C MCD D E @{<4H` th tB`. C @3 D E @{<\H`  h B`. C @3 D E @{<H`  h B`. C @4 D E @{<H` th tB`. C @2 D E @{<\H`  h B`. C @4 D E @{<H`  h B`. C @1 D E @{<B` DE@B` C , \ͅ<\  6 l1\X MCD(Months for Cyclical Dominance) 0x ܭY1D HX 3 tٳ)  6 tٳ)<\ X 0ٳՅi| 1X. nf DE LLp<LLpgLLpG nf *)HB`3 C `onta MCDd"3tt 3, MCDe"4ttt 6 tٳ)D X. D 2E @RG onta *)B`2 C@  ٳ X \Txǐǔ <\ 5>@ . nf D)E@G nf*)HB`! C onta \Txǐǔ mT( X t. D E @RG onta*)B` DE@B`, C<\ 5>  ٳՅi l1\X \Txǐ DE@B`- C: % DE@ R,B` ,C  lbt D"E@%vG lbt"**9vMH` L B`.D E @R,H` <L <B`.C  D E @R,$H` L B`.C %ɷ D E @R,H` L B`.C  D E @R,H` <L <B` .C (D) D E R,$R,$H` $L $B`.C <ݴ D E @R, B`.C () D E @R, H`  L  B`.C D D E @R,B`.C Ő D E @R,H` T B`.C \Txǐ D E @R,H` <T <B`C 3.0172 D E @RX$H` T B`C 1.6165 D E @RXH` T B`C 1.1672 D E @RXH` <T <B`C 3.4378 D E @RX$H` $T $B`C 4.5004 D E @RX H`  T B`C 0.6575 D E @RXB`'C : \Tl@ 1990D 1ƀ0 2003D 12L ȩh. D &E@h>RXB`DE@DRXB`; C` t $\ Xt X 0ٳՅi| 1XƔp LX < 1> . DEJLLp*RLLpB`, DE@`ZLLpB`2 C< 1> X ٳՅi DE@bLLB` @ C  osg DE@hfiiNYG osgc*ni-}quL@ cip$cip$3d Qni$d74?|?:j7?|@%???U dd Q QB`-?C : L0@ ijX 0i0| Xh. D#,#E@RB` C# \ p Ő̸ i 0X(turning point) 0U֥  •mt Et 50 L8 1X(growth cycle)D `  ǔ p\\ XٳX(cyclical component of coincident CI), DٳD, \T 6D(smoothed six-month change rate), \T 12D(smoothed twelve-month change rate)| ٳ 1XƔp < 2> p\X ɄD д . DE LLp3LLpdxLLp4LLpLLp&LLpB`, DE@h.LLpB`. C < 2> X ٳՅi p\ DE@$6LLLB` .C  osg DE@;,G osgc*.9vL@ cip$cip$+{~k$IBK??aMI?Dg???U +{+{~k~kB`" C@ : L0@ Ƭ|X 0i0| Xh. DE@mB`C 4)  0XX t  titM D%E@QB`X C+  0ٳՅi  p\| 1\ X 0X| mt ɍ0@ <\ 6> @p X 0mt@ Ƭ|X 0mt DP` L U֥mt@ 䲌 Ɍ ij

X 0X| mt ɍ0 DE@\LLpB`  C  lbt DE@cp*p*$G lbt"*И8(+9vMH` 4&h 4&B`C l D E @{t%H` P9P9B` C @0  X | D E @{t88H` L9L9B` C  0 () D E @{t48H` B`C  D E @{tH` B`C   D E @{tH` B`C  D E @{tH` B`C U֥0 D E @{tH` B`C •0 D E @{tH` B`C X0 D E @{tH` h B`C  D E @{tH` B`C 1X D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH` B`C 92.6 D E @{tH` B`C 93.9 D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH` B`C `15 D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH` B`C 2X D E @{tH` B`C 93.9 D E @{tH` B`C 96.9 D E @{tH` B`C 98.11 D E @{tH` B`C `36 D E @{tH` B`C `26 D E @{tH` B`C `62 D E @{tH` h B`C  m D E @{tH` B`C 5X D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH` B`C 92.1 D E @{tH` B`C 93.1 D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH` B`C `12 D E @{tH` B`D E @{tH`  B`C 6X D E @{tH`  B`C 93.1 D E @{tH`  B`C 96.3 D E @{tH`  B`C 98.8 D E @{tH`  B`C `38 D E @{tH`  B`C `29 D E @{tH`  B`C `67 D E @{tB` DE@̑B` C   0X 1X0X •0 '92D 6ƀ0 '93D 9Lx <\ Ь. t 0  0  , , 3DŅ 0<<\ x\ x% <\ x 0hδ| . \ tL ȀX ɍx 0ŵE, 4E @ 0hδ ƥD . DE LLp0LLp^\LLpLLpB` C t 0 |, m mD <\ \ 8Ĭ0i  X \ 8| t X ̹X P, txʼn \ ܭDTE<\ x\ mX ٳD  X x<\ ŽX p D (X ǔ |ij $D . DE ԸLLp-LLpYLLLpLLpB`G C(  0X 2X0X U֥0  93D 9ƀ0  96D 9Lx <\ Ь. t 0 8Ȁ ͔\ 0\ Ȁ ͔ t Ɍ0 \ U@ xX  T %  ,ҐX U 0pX\ xt 0 . \ TXX <\ t8, Ѱ, °< ŹҰX œt X Ž \1T. | Ǵij m̸ `x \, 貴m̸ `x, 8T `x, ĬX x%, Ō  ť X D  <\ Yʼn  q t X. DELLp0xLLp]4LLpLLp&LLph.LLp $6LLp8=LLpB` C" 2X0X •0  96D 9ƀ0  98D 11Lx <\ Ь. t 0 IMF l5<\ Ƭ| X  8t $D @ 0t. t\ m0 X \ it$, mij<0, ()opT<ո , t$(), (), ȅit$ ǵŴ@ t$ŴX ij X

D  . L ij t\ ‰)$ <ǘ ĬX U, \X    8D Dt t T U\  0ٳՅi| `  <Ǭ| . DE@ {LLp+|LLpX8LLpLLpLLpB` C  ȹɹ<\  0i XՔ mX Xֽ  Ž0X ij| ¤0 t 4 0 pt0ѠtǤX lt ܴ DՔX \ \X   , ļ\| iXՔp ǴX XX ȩ8 0‘1 \ l Ĭ| ` <\ . DE lLLp*(LLpULLpLLpB` DE@\B` DE@tB` DE@B` DE@B` DE@B`  C88titM DE@B`, Cl$ 8, ́0i 1 \ l, ́l, 1999. DE@hLLpB`43 CଅX$ Ǵ$ @֩, 0ٳ(DI)  , l, 1994. D(E$LLp."LLpB`:3 C@ , 0i(CI)  0, l, 1995. D)*E@*LLpB`# C`m8 Ĭ€, 0ٳՄ, 2000.6. DE@X2LLpB`X3 C x8$ 18 x, ́ ٳ ݹ(2002 3/4, 4/40, 2003 1/40, 2/40, 3/40), ́l, 2002, 2003. DE:LLp8ALLpB`( C, 0i‘1 \ l, \ml, 1981. DE@ILLpB`24 C@tǘ, l 0i(CI)X  , ll, 1994. DE@HQLLpB`53 C , l Ž ٳ , ll, 2002. D&E@YLLpB`A3 C 1$ @8, 0i 1 \ l, \mQǩƽYՌ 1999D XĬE8 \Ԑ̸, 1999. DE`LLp-|hLLpB`35 C`ȹ, 0ٳ| \ Ž0ٳX , l, 1999. DE8pLLp-wLLpB`% Cij$ @lj, Ƚٳ, 1992.1^2003.6 8. DE@LLpB`& Ćl, ́ 0   , 1995. 12. DE@lLLpB` 6 CĬ, 6( 0i , 2003. 7. DE@(LLpB`! C  , 0i 19, 1999.11. D&E@LLpB` C , 0i, 8. D&E@LLpB`) C \m@lj ,  ٳ, 1998.9^2002.6 8. DE@\LLpB`1 C CIBCR, "International Economic Indicators", 8. D'+E@LLpB`- CECRI, "International Cyclical Outlook", 8. D''E@ԵLLpB`6 CEViews 4.0, manual, Quantitative Micro Software, LLC. DE@LLpB`% COECD, Main Economic Indicators, 8. D'E@LLLpB`z7 C@ , OECD leading Indicators and Business Cycle in Members Countries(1960-1985); Sources and Methods, No. 39, 1987. 1. D&'gELLp>LLpB`, CX-12-ARIMA, 41(http://www.commerce.gov). DE@LLpB` Chttp://kosis.nso.go.kr/ DE@LLpB` DE@LLpB` DE@xLLpB`  C Abstract D%E@PQB`  CZ In spite of increasing the role of local government in establishing and executing the regional-level economic policy after the execution of local self-governing body in 1995, there are not many regional economic indicators for the establishment of regional-level economic policy in reality. The introduction of system for analyzing and diagonizing the current economic conditions in Jeju is specially needed with the development of Jeju free International City. It is also necessary for Jeju to analyze the regional business conditions individually since the industry structure is polarized in mandarine and tourism industry. Therefore Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju was developed in this study. DE4)LLpJ0LLp8LLph@LLp)$HLLpsOLLpWLLpX_LLpbgLLpnLLpB` C C We choose 46 monthly indicators in 8 economic sectors for the development of Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju and six indicators - number of employees in non-farm household, industrial production index, number of tourist, income from agricultural products(real), amount of electricity used(residence), industrial production index(consume goods) - are selected among them after conformity inspection and simulation. The combination of those six indicators represents the current business conditions quite well. DEvLLpLH~LLpLLpLLp8|LLp8LLpLLpB` C4 The movement of Coincident Composite Index of Business Indicators in Jeju is a little different from that of Korea. The peak of Jeju business cycles lags about 5 to 6 months with comparison of the peak of Korea business cycles while the trough of Jeju business cycles lags about 3 to 8 months with comparison of the trough of Korea business cycles. These findings imply that Jeju economy is dependent of Korea economy. DE LLpLlLLp(LLpLLp,LLpy\LLpB`8 DE@R p